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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2016-07-17T12:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-07-17T12:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/10999/-1
CME Note: Slow dimming and field line evolution visible in AIA images from 06:30-08:30. Note: the arrival listed here may not be due to this CME, but no other ICME could be found.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-07-19T23:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-07-20T04:39Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Prediction Method: SPM2
Prediction Method Note:

SPM2 Input Parameters:
Date-time:   2016-07-17 12:48:00
Source Longtitude: -23
Source Latitude:  5
Initial Shock Speed:  497 km/s
Background Solar Wind Speed:  400 km/s
Duration Time: 0.2 hour

Output results:The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2016-07-20 04:39:00

Lead Time: 16.35 hour(s)
Difference: -5.57 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) on 2016-07-19T06:44Z

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